MBI Videos
Juan B. Gutierrez
-
Juan B. GutierrezAuthors:
Jacob B Aguilar, PhD, Saint Leo University.
Jeremy Samuel Faust, MD, Brigham and Women's Hospital
Lauren M. Westafer, MD, University of Massachusetts, Medical School-Baystate
Juan B. Gutierrez, PhD, University of Texas at San Antonio
It is during critical times when mathematics can shine and provide an unexpected answer. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a novel human respiratory disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Asymptomatic carriers of the virus display no clinical symptoms but are known to be contagious. Recent evidence reveals that this sub-population, as well as persons with mild, represent a major contributor in the propagation of COVID-19. The asymptomatic sub-population frequently escapes detection by public health surveillance systems. Because of this, the currently accepted estimates of the basic reproduction number (Ro) of the virus are too low. In this talk, we present a traditional compartmentalized mathematical model taking into account asymptomatic carriers, and compute Ro exactly. Our results indicate that an initial value of the effective reproduction number could range from 5.5 to 25.4, with a point estimate of 15.4, assuming mean parameters. It is unlikely that a pathogen can blanket the planet in three months with an Ro in the vicinity of 3, as reported in the literature; in fact, no other plausible explanation has been offered for the rapid profession of this disease. This model was used to estimate the number of cases in every county in the USA. -
Juan B. GutierrezThe advent of high-throughput molecular technologies, and the flood of information they have produced, has forced the biomathematical community to rethink how to conceive, build, and validate mathematical models. In this talk I will demonstrate how the integration of molecular and cellular models shape geographic considerations in the mathematical modeling of malaria. The usefulness of models under this light takes on new meanings, and this broad scope requires the cooperation of scientists coming from very different intellectual traditions. This talk will also explain how an adaptive learning system named ALICE (Adaptive Learning for Interdisciplinary Collaborative Environments) is used to train scientists that approach biomathematics from multiple disciplines.
-
Juan B. GutierrezTraditional epidemiological models consists of compartmentalizing hosts into susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered (SEIR), and variations of this paradigm (e.g. SIR, SIR/SI, etc.). These models are challenged when the within-host dynamics of disease is taken into account with aspects such as: (i) Simultaneous Infection: Simultaneous presence of several distinct pathogen genomes, from the same or multiple species, thus causing individual to belong to multiple compartments simultaneously. (ii) Antigenic diversity and variation: Antigenic variation, defined as the ability of a pathogen to change antigens presented to the immune system during an infection, and antigenic diversity, defined as antigenic differences between pathogens in a population, are central to the pathogen's ability to 1) infect previously exposed hosts, and 2) maintain a long-term infection in the face of the immune response. Immune evasion facilitated by this variability is a critical factor in the dynamics of pathogen growth, and therefore, transmission. This talk explores an alternate mechanistic formulation of epidemiological dynamics based upon studying the influence of within-host dynamics in environmental transmission. A basic propagation number is calculated that could guide public health policy.
-
Juan B. Gutierrez